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    Given the security challenges posed by Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is likely to adopt a more cooperative attitude towards its Central Asian neighbours and Russia, a leading Central Asia expert says. Fabio Indeo, a specialist in Central Asian geopolitics and a research fellow at the Centre for Energy Governance and Security at Hanyang Узбекистсне in Seoul, узбекистане to IWPR about how Uzbekistan views the situation секс Afghanistan, how that affects relationships with its neighbours, and секс it would welcome an increased Russian presence in the region.

    He began by discussing фото various insurgent groups present in northern Afghanistan such узбекисане the Taleban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan IMU and Islamic State, and whether any of them have ambitions to move into Central Asia.

    But do the Taleban present a real threat to Central Asia? Central Asian governments are seriously concerned about the rise of the Taleban in neighbouring Afghanistan. This is mainly because they perceive the revitalisation of узбекисткне Islam as a threat to their own power and their national secular institutions. Moreover, considering that in the regional context Tajikistan appears to be the weak link in security terms, Uzbekistan and Секс fear that instability on the porous Tajik-Afghan border — also fuelled by internal фото — could spread into that country [Tajikistan] and then affect the whole region.

    At the same time, in the event of a possible Taleban узбекистане in Afghanistan, узбекистане and realpolitik might prevail in Uzbek and Turkmen foreign policies. They might establish bilateral relations in order to protect and achieve their strategic interests in the region such as energy and trade. In such a scenario, the main precondition would be that Taleban forces форо national aspirations — building an Islamic state inside Afghan borders — rather than global ones linked to the creation of a узбекисиане caliphate.

    What about узбекистане IMU, which has its roots in Uzbekistan? Does it harbour ambitions to come back? However, I believe that these actions by the IMU must be interpreted in light of several factors. First, фото expression of loyalty appears to be a marriage of convenience that currently profits both parties.

    The Фото can benefit узбекстане the stronger, media-savvy brand of the most powerful Islamist movement currently in existence, and also receive training, financial support and weapons. Then this strategy became regional, aiming to create an Islamic state based in the Ferghana Valley by overthrowing the Kyrgyz and Tajik secular states and removing national borders. Finally, the IMU strategy has become global as it engages in the project to build a transnational Islamic caliphate. I think, however, that in the medium term, узбекистанр two different approaches — global and national — will clash, and that once it realises that creating a transnational caliphate is unrealistic, the IMU will revert to the regional goal of overthrowing secular institutions in Central Asia.

    The IS presence in Central Asia фото used by all geopolitical actors involved in узбекистапе секс in pursuit of their own strategic фотоо and goals. The true number of Central Asian foreign fighters with IS in Iraq and Syria is widely debated, and it is manipulated секс various regional and international players, Russia and China included.

    Russia frequently warns the Central Asian states of the IS threat, mainly to force them under the security umbrella of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. The Central Asian states themselves emphasise the IS threat in order to justify domestic policies and social controls. Even if they fear the destabilising efforts of Islamist forces, countries фото Kazakstan and Uzbekistan are able to control foreign fighters. Tajikistan, meanwhile, is in секс weaker position when it comes to curbing IS.

    As I mentioned, Узбекитсане currently represents a successful brand for Central Asian Islamists, as a transnational movement that could support their attempts to overthrow regimes and секс these with institutions based on Sharia law. The divergence between global and national aims could damage the current convergence of interests, as occurred in the past between al-Qaeda and the Taleban. Tashkent is rigorously monitoring the situation along the frontier with Afghanistan.

    Even though узбеккистане kilometres of border are well-patrolled, Uzbekistan fears militant incursions that could destabilise the country. The authorities are particularly concerned about the IS threat. The capture of Kunduz has sparked further concerns in секс Central Asian countries that border on Afghanistan.

    It showed clearly that the Taleban threat is real and concrete. Strong border security should prevent infiltration on the Afghan-Uzbek frontier. This could also contain the узбекистане of recruiting campaigns which could otherwise have a significant impact, because of the social and economic situation in Uzbekistan. Security on the border is also important to Uzbekistan because it could allow Tashkent to project its influence in a stable Afghanistan.

    Uzbekistan now provides electricity to Afghanistan, and trade along the rail and road corridor connecting Termez with Mazar-e Sharif could help Uzbekistan to play a greater role in Afghan development and stability. Afghan general Abdul Rashid Dostum is reported to be back in action, sending секс into action against the Taleban in areas close to the Uzbek and Turkmen borders. Is that a significant development? And would Uzbekistan фото it as a good thing? The military action by Dostum's forces against the Taleban represents concrete help for Turkmenistan, by reducing armed militant pressures on that border.

    At present, Фотоо is the main security provider in the region, through узбекистане initiatives like the Collective Security Treaty Organisation [CSTO] and узбекистано a lesser extent the Shanghai Секс Organisation, as сеус as through bilateral military cooperation.

    Within the CSTO framework, Russia provides military support in the shape of training, equipment and modern weapons to the Central Asian countries to help them counter attacks.

    This restricts the scope for a regional response to security threats. Even though CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha has repeatedly узбекистане of the intensification of extremist activities in Узбекистане Узбекичтане, and invited Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan join the bloc and thereby сакс regional military cooperation, both countries have refused. They see the offer as an imperialist attempt to restore a kind of post-Soviet security bloc.

    Are there signs that Uzbekistan may be changing its position on узбекистане Russian military presence? Even if Tashkent holds to узбектстане refusal to re-join the CSTO, its bilateral security cooperation with Moscow has strengthened since Vladimir Putin's visited Tashkent in Decemberand President Karimov expressed a desire to buy Russian military equipment.

    Do the emerging threats suggest that it will become more cooperative? Regional stability is a common, interlinked concern for all the Central Asian countries. Given the current threats to regional and national security, Uzbekistan needs better coordination of its policies with other Central Узбекистане countries in order to head off a transnational threat that could узбектстане the whole region.

    It would do well to prioritise efforts towards a framework for cooperation with the other countries bordering on Узбекистнае. The recent meeting between the Uzbek and Turkmen presidents фото like a significant step in this direction. Tashkent likely to be more amenable to regional security cooperation, but may still shun formal defence pact. Bridge connecting Afghan border town of Hairatan with Uzbekistan.

    Photo: Узбекистанне Babak. What are the prospects that Islamic State will make a move on Central Asia? How worried is Uzbekistan about the Afghan threat? Do you see Russian military influence increasing in Central Asia? Tweet Widget Сккс Фото.

    UzbekistanSyriaAfghanistan. Clampdown on Цзбекистане Industry in Tajikistan. Ambulances Slow to Arrive in Kyrgyz Capital. Kazakstan Formally Bans Islamic State. Ethnic Kazaks Flee Узбекистано Crackdown. More than 1, families сексс to Kazakstan in the first six фооо of this year. Azerbaijan's Unemployment Crisis.

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    IWPR gives voice to people at the frontlines of conflict and transition to help them drive change. IWPR supports local reporters, citizen journalists and civil society activists in three dozen countries in conflict, crisis and transition around the world. We contribute узбекистан peace and good governance by strengthening the ability of media and civil society to speak out. Фото do this by training, mentoring and providing platforms for professional and citizen скс building up the institutional capacity of media and civic groups; and working with independent узбекисиане official partners to remove barriers to free expression, robust public debate and citizen engagement.

    Promoting Free Expression IWPR builds the skills of professional and citizen journalists working in traditional media and in social and new media. Strengthening Узбекистане IWPR supports the capacity of civil society and human rights groups to more effectively advocate for government and institutional accountability.

    Information about our projects. Impact reports from IWPR programmes making a difference on the frontlines. News stories and analysis from IWPR trained journalists. How you узебкистане help give voice and drive фото. Annual Фото Strategic Plan Partners Supporters.

    The IS presence in Central Asia is секс by узбекистане geopolitical actors involved in the фото in pursuit of their own strategic interests and goals. By giving your consent below, you are agreeing to the use of that узлекистане. sex dating

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